Are Watches a Good Investment? The Truth About Luxury Watch Investing in 2026

The Reality of Watch Investing: A Balanced Overview

The honest short answer

Most watches are not good investments. The majority depreciate the moment they leave the retailer, and only a small subset of specific brands, references, and conditions have delivered strong returns over certain periods. The "investment" framing frequently conflates passion collecting with deliberate asset allocation. When someone shows you a Patek Philippe Nautilus that tripled in value, they are showing you an outlier, not a representative example.

How watch investing differs from traditional investing

Watches are illiquid, unregulated, and carry no yield. There are no dividends, no interest payments, and no passive income stream. Unlike stocks or savings vehicles, returns depend heavily on timing, expertise, and a degree of luck rather than passive appreciation over time. A savings account, even a modest one, compounds automatically. A watch sitting in a safe does not.

Watches are best positioned as an alternative asset, a small allocation within a broader financial picture, not a portfolio cornerstone. The comparison to traditional investments is important: while you research whether a particular reference might appreciate, your money could be earning steady returns elsewhere. Compare that to Bleap's Dynamic vault at 3.83% AER in USD, which requires no expertise, no authentication skills, and no insurance premiums.

What Determines a Watch's Value?

Brand reputation and heritage

Tier-1 brands command premium resale value, and the hierarchy is well established. Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet sit at the top, supported by decades of consistent prestige, craftsmanship narratives, and tightly controlled supply. These brands have built emotional and cultural capital that translates directly into secondary-market demand.

A lesser-known brand producing an objectively superior movement will almost never match the resale value of a Rolex Submariner. This is a market driven as much by perception and desirability as by horological merit.

Rarity and limited production

Limited edition watches and discontinued references create supply scarcity, and scarcity is the primary engine of appreciation. Production numbers matter, but so do dial variants, bezel inserts, and even factory errors. A "tropical" dial that has aged to a unique colour or a misprint on a dial can turn an ordinary reference into a collector's prize.

When Rolex discontinues a model, the supply is permanently fixed. Every unit that is lost, damaged, or parted out reduces the pool of surviving examples, and prices reflect that shrinking availability.

Condition and originality

In the collector market, "all-original" is the gold standard. Unpolished cases, matching patina on the dial, and correct period parts attract serious collectors and the highest premiums. A watch with replaced hands, a re-lumed dial, or a polished case can lose a significant portion of its value compared to an untouched example.

Service history, the original box, and papers (known as a "full set") can add 20-50% to resale value. Collectors are increasingly demanding complete documentation, and watches missing these elements face a measurable discount.

Historical significance and provenance

Celebrity ownership, military issue history, racing heritage, or notable auction records can elevate a watch's value disproportionately. The Paul Newman Daytona is the most famous example, where a specific celebrity association turned a once-underappreciated model into the most valuable wristwatch ever sold at auction.

Provenance documentation is increasingly critical. In an era where authentication concerns are growing, a clear chain of ownership from a reputable source adds both confidence and value.

Craftsmanship and movement complexity

Grand complications, tourbillons, minute repeaters, and perpetual calendars showcase the highest levels of watchmaking skill. In-house movements, where a brand designs and manufactures the calibre internally, signal commitment to craft and independence.

However, complications alone do not guarantee investment returns. A complex movement from a lesser-known brand will rarely appreciate the way a simple 3-hand Rolex does. Craftsmanship and brand prestige must align for investment-grade performance.

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Supply and demand dynamics in the luxury watch market

Rolex deliberately limits production, and authorised dealer waiting lists drive grey-market premiums for popular sports references. Patek Philippe's strategy of ultra-limited output reinforces generational demand, where buyers expect to wait years for allocation on sought-after models. These supply constraints create conditions where secondary-market prices exceed retail, sometimes significantly.

The dynamic works differently across the brand hierarchy. For Rolex and Patek Philippe, controlled scarcity is a deliberate brand strategy. For most other brands, the supply-demand equation works against the buyer, with retail availability meaning immediate depreciation on the secondary market.

The role of limited editions and discontinued references

Models like the Rolex Daytona, Submariner "Kermit" (16610LV), and Patek Philippe 5711 Nautilus have appreciated substantially after discontinuation. When a reference exits production, the supply is permanently fixed, and collectors who missed the opportunity to buy at retail drive secondary prices upward.

Limited edition watches create artificial scarcity that fuels premiums. However, not all limited editions appreciate. The brand behind the watch matters enormously. A limited edition from a Tier-1 brand with genuine collector demand behaves very differently from a limited edition designed primarily as a marketing exercise.

Cultural momentum and collector communities

Watch forums, Instagram, and YouTube have globalised demand, broadening the buyer pool for desirable references far beyond traditional collector circles. A reference gaining cultural cachet, whether through a celebrity wrist shot, a film appearance, or viral social media content, can spike prices rapidly.

This cultural momentum is a double-edged sword. It can inflate prices beyond reasonable levels, as seen during the 2021-2022 boom, and it can evaporate just as quickly when attention shifts elsewhere.

Historical data on luxury watch appreciation

The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index reports a 1.7% appreciation for watches in 2024 and an extraordinary 125.1% increase over the past decade. While Knight Frank's broader Luxury Investment Index fell by 3.3% in 2024, luxury watches stood firm. Over the past 5 years, the KFLII gained 21.4%, whereas luxury watches surged 52.7%.

More recently, watches rose 5.1% in 2025, led by strong demand for Patek Philippe's Aquanaut and Nautilus models and continued resilience from Rolex.

However, these headline figures mask significant variation. The WatchCharts Overall Market Index is up about 20% over the past 5 years in nominal terms, but once adjusted for inflation, which was over 25% in the U.S. during that same period, most watches are now cheaper in real terms than they were 5 years ago.

The lesson is clear: aggregate indices tell a partial story. Individual model selection, timing, and buying price determine your actual returns.

Watch Investment Returns: What the Data Actually Shows

Headline numbers vs. realistic averages

Cherry-picked auction results dominate media coverage, but average collector returns are far more modest. WatchCharts data shows that over 2024, the overall market was down 5.1%, with Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet down 4.9%, 6.5%, and 7.4% respectively. The investment-grade segment (the top 1% of references) behaves very differently from the broader market.

The standout performer in 2025 was clearly Patek Philippe, up 7.7%, led by gains in the Aquanaut (+10.7%) and Nautilus (+6.1%) collections. But 6 out of 25 major brands tracked by WatchCharts gained value in that period. The other 19 declined.

Benchmarking against stocks and real estate

Over the long run, the S&P 500 has delivered annualised total returns (including dividends) of 10.3% over its lifetime (since 1957). The stock market offers liquidity, regulatory protections, and compounding dividends. Watches offer none of these.

Real estate offers leverage, rental yield, and legal protections that watches do not. A hypothetical $1 million invested in the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index in 2005 would have returned approximately $5.4 million by the end of 2024, while the same $1 million invested in the S&P 500 would have returned $5 million. That comparison sounds favourable for luxury collectibles, but it reflects a peak period and ignores the substantial transaction costs unique to physical assets.

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Transaction costs erode returns

This is where most watch investment narratives fall apart. Auction houses charge buyer's fees, usually calculated as a percentage of the hammer price, typically ranging from 20% to 30%, depending on the auction house and the sale category. Sellers also pay commission, commonly 10-15%.

Dealer margins on the pre-owned watch market add another 15-30%. Then consider insurance (1-2% of value annually), safe storage, and periodic servicing (€350-€1,200+ for mechanical watches every 5-10 years). Total cost of ownership significantly narrows net investment returns, and these costs are often completely absent from the success stories shared on social media.

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The Risks and Challenges of Investing in Watches

Market volatility

The 2021-2022 boom and subsequent correction wiped out short-term gains for many buyers who entered at the peak. After slight upticks and mixed signals, the secondary market continued to decline through 2024, with the WatchCharts Overall Market Index falling overall by 5.1% for the year.

Watch market volatility is amplified by the market's relatively small size, thin liquidity, and sensitivity to trends and cultural momentum. There is no regulatory body, no circuit breakers, and no investor protections. When sentiment shifts, prices can move quickly.

Liquidity issues

Selling a watch quickly almost always means accepting a discount. Finding the right buyer for a niche reference can take weeks or months. Watch depreciation for mainstream models is immediate and often permanent, unlike the top-tier references that dominate investment narratives.

If you need cash in a hurry, a watch is one of the worst assets to liquidate at fair value. The spread between what a dealer will offer you and what you might achieve through patient private selling can be 20-30% or more.

Counterfeits and the authentication challenge

The luxury watch market loses an estimated $3-4 billion annually to counterfeiting. Global counterfeit production matches legitimate output, with an estimated 30 to 40 million fake watches entering circulation annually, while Swiss manufacturers produce approximately 30 million authentic timepieces yearly.

High-quality "super-fakes" can deceive even experienced dealers without specialist tools. Watch authentication is a core skill barrier that eliminates most casual investors. If you cannot tell a redial from an original, or spot replaced hands, you are at significant risk.

Storage, insurance, and maintenance costs

Specialist watch insurance is essential and adds 1-2% of value annually. Mechanical movements require servicing every 5-10 years, and costs vary significantly by complexity and brand. A routine Rolex service runs €600-€900 through an authorised service centre. A Patek Philippe complication can cost well over €1,000.

Improper storage can damage movements, degrade dials (especially vintage), and significantly reduce resale value. Climate control, proper winding, and secure storage are ongoing responsibilities that most casual investors underestimate.

Emotional bias and the "collector trap"

Emotional attachment leads to poor investment decisions. Collectors hold losing watches because they love them, or overpay for a personal grail because desire overrides discipline. The buy-what-you-love principle is sound for collectors, but it can directly conflict with disciplined investing, because the watches you love most may not be the watches that appreciate.

Warning: What the Internet Gets Wrong About Watch Investing

Survivorship bias in success stories

Influencers and YouTube channels showcase dramatic wins. Losses are rarely publicised. The Paul Newman Daytona and the Patek 5711 Nautilus are outliers, not benchmarks. For every reference that tripled in value, dozens of others depreciated quietly, generating no content and no clicks.

Misleading influencer claims

Much watch investment content online is incentivised by affiliate links, dealer partnerships, and sponsored posts. "This watch will 10x" claims ignore the expertise, timing, and luck required to achieve such returns. The people making these claims often profit from the content itself, not from the watch transactions they are recommending.

The timing illusion

Many investors bought at 2021-2022 peaks influenced by viral content, then faced significant losses during the subsequent correction. Hindsight makes past winners look obvious. Predicting the next "grail" reference is genuinely difficult, even for experienced collectors with deep market knowledge.

The difference between collecting and investing

Enjoyment, community, and aesthetic pleasure are legitimate reasons to buy watches. Conflating these with financial returns sets unrealistic expectations and can cause real financial harm. If you buy a watch you love and it happens to appreciate, that is a bonus. If you buy a watch purely for returns without deep expertise, the odds are against you.

The Deep Expertise Required to Succeed

Authentication skills

Identifying period-correct parts, dial printing quality, case finishing, and movement condition is a skill that takes years to develop. Watch authentication services from specialists provide a safety net, but they have limitations: not all services cover all references in equal depth, and turnaround times can be slow.

Buying without expertise or trusted intermediaries is high-risk. Even reputable dealers occasionally miss details that affect authenticity and value. The safest approach for beginners is to rely on authorised certified pre-owned programmes or independent authentication specialists before committing to any significant purchase.

Market knowledge and reference literacy

Understanding which references are genuinely investment-grade versus which are simply expensive is a critical distinction. Not every Rolex is an investment. Not every Patek Philippe will appreciate. Tracking auction results from Christie's, Sotheby's, and Phillips, monitoring dealer pricing, and following grey-market indices through platforms like WatchCharts requires ongoing commitment.

Staying current with production changes, discontinuations, and brand announcements is part of the job. A surprise discontinuation can create overnight premiums. A new release can crash the value of the model it replaces.

Dealer networks and access

Authorised dealer relationships for new Rolex and Patek Philippe are gated and relationship-dependent. You typically cannot walk into a store and buy a steel Daytona or a Nautilus at retail without an established purchase history. This access barrier creates a system where grey-market premiums exist precisely because most buyers cannot obtain the watch at retail.

Trusted pre-owned dealers, reputable auction houses, and collector communities reduce fraud risk. The network advantage is real: experienced collectors know who to trust and when to act.

Timing the watch market

So far in 2025, demand for the most desirable brands remains strong, particularly as secondary prices fall towards (and in some instances, below) retail and primary market availability improves. Buying during market corrections offers better entry points for long-term holders.

Exiting before a model's cultural moment fades is as important as knowing what to buy. Timing requires market intuition that comes only from years of active participation.

Vintage vs. Modern Watches as Investments

The case for vintage watch value

True scarcity underpins vintage watch value. Production stopped, supply is permanently fixed, and original-condition examples become increasingly rare as watches are lost, damaged, serviced incorrectly, or consumed by parts dealers.

Vintage Rolex Submariners, Daytonas, and Patek Philippe Calatravas have delivered exceptional long-term returns for knowledgeable buyers who acquired them before mass-market attention arrived. Vintage watch value is real, but it is validated by auction house provenance and expert authentication, not by seller claims on marketplace listings.

The risks unique to vintage

Condition assessment on vintage watches is exponentially harder than on modern pieces. Hidden dial restoration, case polishing, or part replacement can destroy a significant portion of value, and detecting these interventions requires specialist knowledge.

Servicing vintage calibres requires specialist watchmakers, and genuine replacement parts are often no longer available. Authentication is more complex, with "Frankenwatches" (watches assembled from parts of different examples) and tropical dial forgeries presenting real risks that can fool even seasoned collectors.

The case for modern investment-grade watches

New Rolex and Patek Philippe watches, where obtainable at retail, carry a manufacturer warranty and known provenance. Limited modern references have appreciated from their retail price, sometimes significantly.

The authentication risk is lower when purchasing through authorised dealers, and the condition is guaranteed. For beginners, modern investment-grade watches from trusted sources present a more controlled entry point.

Which performs better?

There is no universal answer. Vintage wins on absolute scarcity and price ceiling. Modern wins on accessibility and certainty of authenticity. Experienced collectors often hold both in a balanced approach. Beginners should start with modern from trusted, verifiable sources to learn the market without the added complexity of vintage authentication.

The Pre-Owned Watch Market: How It Works

Structure of the pre-owned market

The pre-owned watch market has multiple channels: authorised pre-owned programmes (such as Rolex Certified Pre-Owned), specialist dealers, auction houses, and online platforms like Chrono24 and WatchBox. Each channel carries different risk profiles, pricing expectations, and authentication guarantees.

The global pre-owned luxury watch market was valued at approximately $24.9 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach $63.7 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 9.9%. This growth reflects increasing acceptance of pre-owned luxury as both a cultural and financial proposition.

Where to buy and sell safely

Authorised certified pre-owned programmes offer manufacturer-backed authentication and warranty protection. These are the safest option for buyers without deep expertise, though prices reflect that certainty.

Reputable specialist dealers provide knowledge and curation but charge margins for their expertise. Peer-to-peer platforms offer better prices but expose buyers to fraud risk without independent verification. For significant purchases, always use an independent authentication service regardless of the source.

Price premiums vs. watch depreciation by market segment

Grey-market premiums for Rolex sports models remained 30-100% above retail during 2020-2022. These premiums have since compressed significantly during the correction, with many references now trading closer to retail or even below.

Non-investment-grade luxury watches from mid-tier and fashion brands follow typical depreciation curves: losing 20-40% within the first year and continuing to decline. Box-and-papers condition, service records, and originality directly affect pre-owned pricing at every level.

When you are spending significant sums on pre-owned watches, sometimes across international markets, how you pay matters too. Most cards charge 2-3% in FX fees on international purchases. Bleap charges 0% FX fees on every transaction, anywhere Mastercard is accepted. On a €10,000 pre-owned watch purchase from an overseas dealer, that difference alone is €200-€300 saved.

Watch Brands and Models Most Commonly Cited as Investment-Grade

Important caveat: past performance does not guarantee future results. Every reference discussed below has experienced periods of both appreciation and decline.

Rolex investment: the market benchmark

The Rolex Market Index rose 4.6% in 2025, with nearly all models posting solid performances. Rolex remains the first port of call in the secondary market, a kind of bellwether.

Sports models (Submariner, GMT-Master II, Daytona, Explorer) have the strongest resale track record. Rolex investment appeal is driven by brand recognition, controlled supply, and broad global demand across demographics and geographies.

Even within Rolex, most dress watches and entry-level Oyster Perpetuals do not outperform at resale. Rolex investment is a reference-specific strategy, not a blanket approach to the brand.

Patek Philippe investment: the collector's pinnacle

The Patek Philippe Market Index outpaced Rolex, climbing 12.1%. The Aquanaut 5167A has been Patek's star performer, remaining one of the hardest to source due to overwhelming demand.

Patek Philippe investment is validated by consistent auction house performance spanning decades. The Nautilus 5711, Aquanaut 5167, and complicated dress watches have shown exceptional results. However, the extreme entry cost, often 6 figures for investment-grade references, limits accessibility for most collectors.

Audemars Piguet: the Royal Oak effect

The Royal Oak 15202, 15500, and limited "Concept" pieces have appreciated meaningfully over their lifetimes. AP's collaborations and artist limited editions have attracted speculative premiums, though Audemars Piguet has continued to decline in secondary market transaction volume recently, suggesting some cooling.

Other brands with selective investment-grade models

F.P. Journe stands out for micro-production volumes, uncompromising quality, and strong collector appreciation. A. Lange & Sohne offers German haute horlogerie with a growing collector base, though secondary-market liquidity is thin compared to the "Big Three."

Exercise caution: most brands marketed as "investment watches" by dealers do not deliver investment-grade returns. If the brand does not have consistent auction house demand and a track record of secondary-market appreciation, the "investment" narrative is likely marketing, not reality.

Tips for Beginners Considering Watch Collecting as an Investment

Start with education, not expenditure

Spend months reading forums (WatchUSeek, Reddit's r/Watches), auction archives, and price tracking tools like WatchCharts before buying anything. Attend watch fairs, visit authorised dealers, and handle watches in person. Watch collecting tips from experienced collectors consistently prioritise knowledge over capital.

The most expensive mistake a beginner makes is buying before understanding. The second most expensive is buying from the wrong source.

Set a realistic budget and stick to it

Never invest money you cannot afford to lose or tie up for years. Factor in all costs: purchase price, insurance, servicing, and transaction fees on exit. A reasonable starting budget is sub-€5,000 for pre-owned pieces, allowing you to learn the market dynamics without catastrophic downside.

While your investment capital is being allocated, consider where the rest of your savings sits. Bleap's savings vaults offer Steady at 3.65% AER and Dynamic at 3.83% AER in USD, with no minimum deposit above $1, no withdrawal fees, and no lock-in. It is a practical place for your cash reserves to earn while you learn the watch market. EUR savings vaults are coming soon.

Buy from trusted, verifiable sources

Authorised dealers and manufacturer-certified pre-owned programmes for modern watches are the safest route. Established auction houses with independent authentication protect vintage buyers. Avoid private sales and online classifieds without expert verification, especially for purchases above €1,000.

Apply the buy-what-you-love principle

If the watch never appreciates, you still own something you enjoy wearing. Emotional resilience during market downturns is easier when you genuinely love the object on your wrist. Combining genuine passion with disciplined research is the most sustainable approach to watch collecting over the long term.

Think long-term and diversify

Watches should represent a small allocation, 5-10% at most, within a broader, diversified portfolio. Long holding periods of 5-10+ years tend to smooth volatility for genuinely investment-grade references. Avoid speculative flipping unless you have deep market expertise and dealer-level access. The people who make money flipping watches do so because they have sourcing advantages, not because they have better taste.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Watch Investment

Can you actually make money investing in watches?

Yes, but only a minority of buyers do, and most successes require expertise, patience, and some luck. The average buyer of mainstream luxury watches will not outperform basic savings vehicles after accounting for all costs. The people who consistently profit from watches are deep specialists, not casual investors attracted by social media success stories.

Which watches have the best resale value?

Rolex sports models (Submariner, Daytona, GMT-Master II), Patek Philippe complications (Nautilus, Aquanaut), and select Audemars Piguet Royal Oak references have historically shown the strongest watch resale value. Within any brand, specific references and dial variants matter enormously. Generalisations are dangerous: a steel Daytona and a gold Cellini exist in completely different resale universes despite sharing the Rolex name.

Is now a good time to buy watches as an investment?

Watches rose 5.1% in 2025, signalling stabilisation after the post-2022 correction. The correction has brought many references closer to or below retail, creating more rational entry points than the 2021 peak. Whether "now" is a good time depends on your specific target reference, exit horizon, and risk tolerance. There is no universal answer.

Should I buy new or pre-owned watches for investment?

New from authorised dealers offers clean provenance but limited access to investment-grade references. Pre-owned offers broader selection and sometimes better entry pricing but requires authentication expertise. For beginners, certified pre-owned programmes offer the best balance of safety and selection.

How do I spot a fake luxury watch?

Watch authentication requires reference-specific knowledge: correct case finishing, dial printing, movement details visible through the caseback, and serial number verification. Use specialist authentication services for any significant purchase. Never rely solely on seller-provided documentation.

Are vintage watches better investments than modern ones?

Vintage watches offer greater upside potential and fixed scarcity but carry substantially higher authenticity and condition risk. Vintage watch value is real but expert-dependent. If you lack the knowledge to evaluate vintage condition independently, modern investment-grade references from authorised sources are a safer starting point.

Conclusion: Are Watches a Good Investment? The Verdict

Watches are not a reliable investment for most people. But they are a fascinating alternative asset for knowledgeable, patient, and passionate participants who understand the market's unique demands.

The key pillars bear repeating: brand and reference selection matter more than the asset class as a whole. Transaction and ownership costs are significant and often underestimated. Authentication expertise is non-negotiable. Market volatility is real, and even the strongest references experience drawdowns.

The legitimate joy of watch collecting should not be overshadowed by the investment narrative. The cultural, aesthetic, and emotional value of great watches is real, even when the financial returns are uncertain. If you are drawn to watches, invest first in education. Spend months learning before spending euros.

For the capital you are not ready to commit to a watch purchase, consider putting it somewhere it earns a predictable return. Bleap's savings vaults deliver Steady at 3.65% AER or Dynamic at 3.83% AER in USD, with $1 minimum deposit and 0% withdrawal fees. And when you do make that watch purchase, whether from an international dealer or at a Geneva auction, Bleap's 0% FX fees mean you keep more of your money on every transaction.